SCOTFACT

Fiscal Transfers

FISCAL TRANSFERS

RAB BOYCE, AUGUST 2018

What are Fiscal Transfers?

Fiscal transfers occur where public expenditure is not directly tied to where revenue is raised. Fiscal transfers can be thought of as a form of redistribution through the tax system and occur on an individual level as well as a regional level.

On an individual level, fiscal transfers are enacted via staggered rates of income tax, wealth & property taxes, and welfare & benefits. At a regional level, fiscal transfers are used to manage the flow of funds from wealthier to poorer regions by way of public tax and spend policy. These differences in regional revenue and expenditure result in an internal fiscal transfer between the various UK regions. We will be discussing regional fiscal transfers in this article. 
As a product of a normally functioning, integrated economy, fiscal transfers serve two main functions:
 
  • redistribution, or permanent transfer of funds from richer to poorer regions, helping the convergence of regional living standards to meet the national average, and
  • insurance against macroeconomic shocks, or temporary transfer of funds to smooth out the impact of idiosyncratic regional (risk-sharing) and common (stabilisation) shocks.
Fiscal transfers are a bi-product of tax and spend policy. These are essentially a logical accounting exercise and are not in any way a subsidy, loan or debt. 

Regional fiscal transfers are not unique to the UK. Large fiscal transfers between the wealthy and poorer regions in Germany are a well-known example. However, the independence debate has brought this topic into sharp focus as, in the event of Scottish Independence, any fiscal transfer to/from the rest of the UK would cease.

Net fiscal balance, surplus and deficit

A net fiscal balance is defined as the difference between revenue and expenditure. 
A surplus is defined when the net fiscal balance is a positive amount. 
A deficit is when this it is a negative amount.

Calculating Fiscal Transfers

If, like in the UK, there is an integrated economy where tax and spend are not tied to specific regions, then disparities in regional fiscal balances are smoothed out by an effective fiscal transfer from the best performing regions to the worst.

The Fiscal transfer can be calculated by taking a region’s net fiscal balance from the population share of the national fiscal balance 

For example:

THE UNITED KINGDOM

The UK’s net fiscal deficit is £45,677m. If uniformly distributed (split equally across the population) this would result in a net fiscal deficit per person of £695.

THE NORTH WEST

The North West has a net fiscal deficit of £19,409m. If the North West was to have an equal population share of the deficit, this would be 11% of the UK total or £5,025m. The North West therefore benefits from a fiscal transfer of £14,384m.

LONDON

London has a net fiscal surplus of £32,475m. Its population share (13.4%) of the national fiscal deficit would be £6,102m. London therefore loses out in the fiscal transfer to the sum of £38,577m.

THE NORTH WEST

The North West has a net fiscal deficit of £19,409m. If the North West was to have an equal population share of the deficit, this would be 11% of the UK total or £5,025m. The North West therefore benefits from a fiscal transfer of £14,384m.
workings:
North West Population share of deficit = £45.677m x 11% = 5,025m.

 - £5,025m (population share)  
minus
 -£19,409m (deficit)
 = 
£14,384m

LONDON

London has a net fiscal surplus of £32,475m. Its population share (13.4%) of the national fiscal deficit would be £6,102m. London therefore loses out in the fiscal transfer to the sum of £38,577m.
workings:
London Population share of deficit = £45.677m x 13.4% = 6,102m. 

£32,473 (population share)
minus  
-£6,102m (surplus)
-£38,577m
workings:
North West Population share of deficit = £45.677m x 11% = 5,025m.

 - £5,025m (population share)  
minus
 -£19,409m (deficit)
 = 
£14,384m
workings:
London Population share of deficit = £45.677m x 13.4% = 6,102m. 

£32,473 (population share)
minus  
-£6,102m (surplus)
-£38,577m

Net Fiscal Balances

The Constituent Nations

The UK runs a countrywide fiscal deficit. We can use the latest ONS Regional Statistics report for 2016-17 [1] to examine the various countries and their contributions to this. Of the component countries in the UK only England has a negative fiscal transfer. This is due to its relatively small net fiscal balance compared to its population size. i.e. England's deficit is less than its population share of the UK total. Logically, this means that revenue flows out of England to the other regions, however, in practice as the whole of the UK is in deficit this means that England bears a disproportionately increased debt burden. Scotland has a positive fiscal transfer, as its actual deficit is higher than its population share.
ONS Fiscal Position by Country 2016-17
Revenue (£m) Expenditure (£m) Net Fiscal Balance (£m) Population % Population Share of UK deficit (£m) Fiscal Transfer (£m)*
United Kingdom 726,309 771,986 -45,677 100.0% -45,677 0
England 626,289 635,028 -8,739 84.2% -38,458 -29,719
Wales 26,086 39,334 -13,248 4.7% -2,165 11,083
Scotland 57,267 71,609 -14,342 8.2% -3,758 10,583
Northern Ireland 16,667 26,015 -9,348 2.8% -1,295 8,053
*A positive fiscal transfer indicates that the country gains i.e. funds are transferred from the rest of the UK to bring the country up to the UK average.  A negative fiscal transfer indicates that the country loses i.e. funds are transferred from this country to the other countries in the UK to bring the country down to the UK average.
Due to population size discrepancies and a large variance in the performance of the various English regions, a country level view does not tell the whole story. 

To provide more useful data with respect to Scotland’s relative performance, we will use the ONS stats to further break down England’s figures into economic regions, which are more comparable with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in terms of population size.

It is worth noting that while figures are not available, this regional variance also applies to Scotland – for example, during the 80’s oil boom, Aberdeen would have experienced a large positive net fiscal balance compared to Scotland's west coast, which faced the economic challenges of de-industrialisation. 
UK FISCAL BALANCE
2016-17
COUNTRY FISCAL BALANCE
2016-17
COUNTRY FISCAL TRANSFER
2016-17
Regional

ONS use the NUTS1 region definitions. This does not diminish Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland's status as countries in their own right and is used in the most generic definition of 'region' – meaning 'a geographical area'.

London, the South East and  the East of England have negative fiscal transfers, This indicates that their net fiscal balances are higher than their population share. In fact, all three of these regions have positive net fiscal balances, or surpluses. These surpluses drastically reduce England's overall deficit and somewhat mask the underperformance of the other English regions.
ONS Fiscal Position by Region 2016-17
Revenue (£m) Expenditure (£m) Net Fiscal Balance (£m) Population % Population Share of UK deficit (£m) Fiscal Transfer (£m)*
North East 22,738 32,548 -9,810 4.0% -1,833 7,977
North West 65,975 85,384 -19,409 11.0% -5,025 14,384
Yorkshire and the Humber 49,400 61,344 -11,944 8.3% -3,774 8,170
East Midlands 45,238 51,470 -6,232 7.2% -3,291 2,941
West Midlands 52,247 65,617 -13,370 8.9% -4,046 9,324
East of England 70,866 65,371 5,495 9.3% -4,265 -9,760
London 145,317 112,842 32,475 13.4% -6,102 -38,577
South East 117,437 97,993 19,444 13.8% -6,283 -25,727
South West 57,071 62,459 -5,388 8.4% -3,840 1,548
Wales 26,086 39,334 -13,248 4.7% -2,165 11,083
Scotland 57,267 71,609 -14,342 8.2% -3,758 10,583
Northern Ireland 16,667 26,015 -9,348 2.8% -1,295 8,053
ONS Fiscal Position by Region per Head 2016-17 (£)
Revenue per Head (£) Expenditure per Head (£) Net Fiscal Balance per Head (£) Fiscal Transfer per head (£)*
North East 8,617 12,335 -3,718 3,023
North West 9,122 11,805 -2,684 1,989
Yorkshire and the Humber 9,095 11,294 -2,199 1,504
East Midlands 9,550 10,866 -1,316 621
West Midlands 8,972 11,268 -2,296 1,601
East of England 11,544 10,649 895 -1,590
London 16,544 12,847 3,697 -4,392
South East 12,987 10,836 2,150 -2,845
South West 10,325 11,300 -975 280
Wales 8,371 12,623 -4,251 3,557
Scotland 10,586 13,237 -2,651 1,956
Northern Ireland 8,940 13,954 -5,014 4,319
*A positive fiscal transfer indicates that the region gains i.e. funds are transferred from the rest of the UK to bring the region up to the UK average.  A negative fiscal transfer indicates that the region loses i.e. funds are transferred from this region to the other regions in the UK to bring the region down to the UK average.
REGIONAL NET FISCAL BALANCE
2016-17
REGIONAL FISCAL TRANSFER
2016-17
REGIONAL FISCAL TRANSFER
PER HEAD 2016-17
REGIONS IN SURPLUS
As shown, three regions in the UK have a positive net fiscal balance. These are London, the South East and the East of England. We see that, in particular, London and the South East have significantly large positive balances. 

The fact that the three regions in surplus have disproportionately large populations (36.5% of the UK, and 43.3% of England) only serves to amplify the absolute contribution to the aggregated net fiscal position of England. So, while the other English regions have a net fiscal position similar to or worse than Scotland’s, the overall position of England appears much healthier due to the strength of these three regions.

Of the three regions in surplus, London dominates, generating 56.6% of the total from the combined surplus.
ONS Regions in Surplus 2016-17
Region Net Fiscal Balance (£m) Surplus % UK Population %
East of England 5,495 9.6% 9.3%
London 32,475 56.6% 13.3%
South East 19,444 33.9% 13.7%
REGIONS IN DEFICIT
If we look at the nine regions that are running a fiscal deficit, we can see that the largest percentage is from the North West at 18.8%, with the South West lowest at 5.2%. Scotland lies half-way between, responsible for 13.9% of the total deficit when you remove the three regions in surplus.
ONS Regions in Deficit 2016-17
Region Fiscal Balance Deficit % UK Pop %
North East -9,810 9.5% 4.0%
North West -19,409 18.8% 11.0%
Yorkshire and the Humber -11,944 11.6% 8.3%
East Midlands -6,232 6.0% 7.2%
West Midlands -13,370 13.0% 8.9%
South West -5,388 5.2% 8.4%
Wales -13,248 12.9% 4.7%
Scotland -14,342 13.9% 8.2%
Northern Ireland -9,348 9.1% 2.8%

CONCLUSION

Fiscal transfers can be an engine for economic regeneration, wealth redistribution and harmonisation of living standards across disparate regions within a single economic area.

As we have demonstrated above, the latest statistics from ONS show that there is a wide divergence of economic performance at regional level in the UK. This variance is mitigated by a lack of direct association of expenditure and revenue within each region. Fiscal transfers allow public expenditure to be focused where required and to protect regions from localised economic shocks due to specific sectorial downturns, demographic challenges or structural issues.


London, the East and the South East of England continue to generate large fiscal surpluses which help protect spending in the rest of the UK. However, the positive performance of these tends to mask the poorer performance of the other English regions, which can shed unduly negative light on the other three home nations.

With respect to Scotland and the ongoing Independence discussion, this presents a real challenge. In 2016-17, Scotland benefitted from a fiscal transfer of £10,583m from the rest of the UK. This transfer would be lost in the event of independence and shouldn't be ignored by those making the economic case for an Independent Scotland.

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